The industrial enterprise benefit of the Ministry

2022-08-12
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Ministry of industry and information technology: the benefit of industrial enterprises exceeded the expectation 1

Ministry of industry and information technology: the benefit of industrial enterprises exceeded the expectation, and the monthly profit increased by 31.5% according to the provisions of gb/t16491, gb/t5836 and other standards

China Construction machinery information

the Ministry of industry and information technology used the words "stable, good and progressive" to summarize the good start of industry in the first quarter of this year

on April 26, the State Information Office held a press conference on the development of industrial communication industry in the first quarter of 2017. Zheng Lixin, spokesman of the Ministry of industry and information technology and director of the Bureau of operation monitoring and coordination, said that industrial production and enterprise benefits were better than expected

from the data, the substantial growth of industry and the improvement of external demand, the restorative growth of industrial enterprise benefits, the recovery of investment, and the recovery of industrial consumption. With the industrial growth rate hitting a multi-year high in March, macroeconomic indicators are almost all-round red

with the support of good data, whether China's economy has ushered in a new cycle has become a hot issue for all parties

optimists said that with the recovery of fixed asset investment and the continuous self circulation of the internal driving force of the economy, China's economy has bid farewell to the past six-year cycle of capacity reduction, deflation and balance sheet adjustment, and ushered in a "new cycle of implementing the regulations on optimizing the business environment". Some analysts also believe that due to poor returns, private investment in manufacturing investment is still weak, and the zhugra cycle has not started. At present, it may be at the peak of a small rebound

the bottom of the economy needs the transformation of old and new kinetic energy. At present, economic restructuring still has a long way to go

a number of economic indicators were better than expected

on April 26, the Ministry of industry and information technology said that the industrial economy had a good start in the first quarter, and industrial production and enterprise efficiency were better than expected

this is the first time that the Ministry has made a statement on the industrial economy in the first quarter. The factory price of industrial products, the added value of industries above Designated Size, the added value of manufacturing industry, the profits of industrial enterprises and other data published in the industrial field not long ago are almost all red

Zheng Lixin said that in the first quarter, the industrial economy overcame the complex and volatile internal and external environment and the increase of uncertain and unstable factors. The overall situation of industrial operation can be summarized as "stable, good and progressive"

the so-called "stability". From the overall situation of industry, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.8% in the first quarter, of which the added value of industries above designated size increased by 7.6% in March, which remained at more than 6% for 13 consecutive months, and reached a new high in 27 months. The added value of 36 industries in 41 major industries increased year-on-year

further data provided by Zheng Lixin showed that the added value of consumer goods industry increased by 7.1% in the first quarter, of which the added value of light industry and textile industry increased by 8.2% and 5.1% respectively; The profits of these two industries also increased by 10.7% and 10.9% respectively in August. The production and operation of the raw material industry also improved: in January, the metallurgical industry turned from a loss of 930 million yuan in the same period last year to a profit of 45.3 billion yuan, and the non-ferrous metal industry realized a profit of 36.6 billion yuan, an increase of more than twice year-on-year

in terms of regions, the growth rate of industrial added value in 20 provinces in the first quarter was faster than that in the same period last year. Among them, Jiangsu, which ranks among the top five industries in China, has taken the advanced technology of Shimadzu in Japan as an example. The growth rate of Guangdong, Shandong, Henan and Zhejiang has basically remained at 7% - 8%; Affected by the restorative growth of upstream energy raw material prices, the provinces that lost money in the same period last year turned losses into profits in the first two months of this year

"good" is mainly reflected in the fact that the benefits of the enterprise exceed expectations. Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size achieved a profit of 1015.7 billion yuan in June, a substantial increase of 31.5% year-on-year; The profit margin of main business income also increased by 0.8 percentage points compared with the same period last year, while the loss of enterprises decreased by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year

according to the industrial questionnaire survey conducted by the Ministry of industry and information technology on 6000 enterprises, the proportion of enterprises with good production and operation in the first quarter reached 44.2%, an increase of 12 percentage points over the same period last year

the main performance of "progress" is that the supply side structural reform is actively promoted, and the manufacturing industry is gradually moving towards the middle and high end

Qiao Baohua, economist of the Institute of industry and economics of CCID Research Institute of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald that the industrial growth rate in the first quarter significantly exceeded expectations and was related to the rebound in foreign trade and the recovery of industrial investment: in March, the export delivery value of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size reached 1073.7 billion yuan, an increase of 12.9%, hitting a high since 2013; The growth rate of industrial investment also rebounded significantly in the first quarter

according to Qiao Baohua, the sharp growth of industry in the first quarter was closely related to the improvement of external demand, the restorative growth of industrial enterprise benefits, the recovery of investment, and the rebound in consumption of industrial products such as household appliances, furniture, construction and decoration materials, which were mutually causal. This laid an important foundation for the "good start" of GDP

cyclical recovery

has the macro economy hit the bottom and entered a new growth cycle? There are different views on this issue

Deng Haiqing, global chief economist of Kyushu securities, is optimistic. He believes that the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the first quarter increased by 0.3 percentage points over the previous month, which is an important sign of China's economic stability

in his view, the recovery of enterprise profits and the internal needs of industrial upgrading have driven the increase of investment. At the same time, the inputs needed for investment will be the products of other enterprises, thus driving the start of the economic cycle. With the recovery of fixed asset investment, the internal driving force of the economy continues to self cycle, and finally drives the return of the "new cycle" of China's economy

Ren Zeping, chief economist of Founder Securities, who belongs to the optimistic camp, believes that China's economy may have bid farewell to the past six years of capacity reduction, deflation and balance sheet adjustment, and is standing at the starting point of a new cycle

"domestic and foreign demand has recovered in an all-round way, and exports, manufacturing investment, real estate investment, infrastructure construction, etc. have rebounded more than expected. China's economic cycle is moving from recession to recovery. Benefiting from the recovery of demand and the clearing of supply, the real GDP growth rate is L-shaped, and the nominal GDP growth rate is U-shaped." Ren Zeping believes that the economic recovery in the small cycle will continue until at least the second quarter

Zhubaoliang, chief economist of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, said that the cycle of manufacturing investment is mainly the zhugra cycle, and he is skeptical that China's economy has begun this cycle. He pointed out that 85% of the manufacturing industry is private investment, and now this part does not make money. Since this year, the improvement in profits mainly comes from six major industries such as upstream steel, nonferrous metals and coal. The investment in manufacturing industry has no income and has not started a new cycle. The rebound in excavator sales data is more the reason for upgrading

Wang Bin, a senior analyst at the research center of the investment banking department of industrial and Commercial Bank of China, told the 21st Century Business Herald. "In the first quarter, China's economic growth exceeded expectations, but considering the PPI price disturbance and the existing economic structure problems, it is difficult to say that the economy has entered a new cycle."

from the perspective of cycle theory, Hong Hao, chief strategist of BOCOM international, pointed out that China's economy has strictly followed the inventory investment cycle in the past 20 years. "Due to the obvious rebound in cyclical sector prices, some people believe that China's economy has entered a new cycle. However, data on real estate investment cycle, money supply cycle, inflation cycle, stock market operation and bond yield expectations all show that the momentum of this round of recovery has begun to decline."

compared with the start of the new cycle, Jiang Chao, chief economist of Haitong Securities, believes that the current is more like the peak of a stage. He said that in terms of micro data, the growth rate of crude steel, excavators, trucks and other production and sales fell significantly in March. The recent decline in commodity prices may mean that the periodic high point of the economy has emerged

the Ministry of industry and information technology is sober about the problems faced in the future. Zheng Lixin said that from the international perspective, the world economic recovery is slow; The growth rate of domestic industrial investment is low, and the production and operation costs of enterprises are rising. The transformation of old and new kinetic energy still needs a process, and the factors supporting stable economic growth need to be further cultivated

Qiao Baohua believes that the biggest problem facing the current macroeconomic stability is the transformation of old and new kinetic energy. Because the volume of traditional industries is too large, and the overall growth rate is in the general trend of decline, although the growth rate of emerging industries is very fast, the volume is still small, and the problem of "lack of connection" is easy to occur in the replacement process of new and old industries

looking forward to 2017, Qiao Baohua believes that the supply side structural reform in the industrial sector will continue to deepen in the future, industrial investment is expected to rebound steadily, the consumption potential of industrial products is also expected to continue to be released, the delivery value of industrial exports will grow at a medium speed, and the transformation of old and new industrial drivers will accelerate, thus promoting industrial growth to stabilize, and the industrial economy is expected to show a trend of "high before and stable after" throughout the year

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