Prediction of the world pulp market in 2002

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The world pulp Market Forecast in 2002 is that half of December has passed, and the rest of the month will be dominated by festivals. Most of the buyers and sellers in the market have settled their business this year and set their sights on January next year. Due to weak demand, the recession in December this year was worse than in previous years. Some people think that the market will be more calm in the future, because some pulp mills have not taken measures to reduce production. In order to settle the business as soon as possible before the end of the year, the quotation of some spot goods has been reduced, and the price of conventional business is also lower than a few weeks ago

the price of hardwood pulp is rising and approaching. In some cases, even after the change, it will appear that the disordered code exceeds the price of cork pulp. This is a typical by-product of weak markets, but it may be more obvious this year. Insiders blame this on the oversupply of northern softwood pulp. The inventory data of chemical paper grade commercial pulp in North America and norscan released on December 13 also proved this speculation. Some people believe that excessive supply and sluggish demand may even cause prices to fall again in the first quarter of next year. It is said that the light coated paper (LWC) in the United States and Europe has become weak, and the raw material of this paper is northern bleached cork kraft pulp (NBSK)

however, a long-term supplier of a specialty paper mill in the United States said that he had not heard any news about recent price changes. "People think prices will not change, neither rise nor fall," he said At the same time, his customer, the factory that produces industrial paper, ordered enough products to operate the factory five days a week. He said that it can be roughly summarized into two points: "there is no sign of increase in industrial orders." He believes that the users of this factory are a good indicator of the current economic situation

some international middlemen said that China's pulp demand is still very good. One of them said, "this is the only merit of this year." They said that this phenomenon was caused by the interruption of hardwood pulp supply in Indonesia and the increase of domestic paper production capacity in China. According to them, the price of North American hardwood pulp in December was still USD/mt, the same as that in November; The price of eucalyptus pulp is 390 US dollars/metric ton. They also said that the price of NBSK in China remained at $400/Mt. A Canadian consulting company said that in December, the price of NBSK in China came from more than 140 professors and experts from 15 universities, including Central Nanjing University, central China Normal University and Xiangtan University, who had a pre meeting and made an academic report. The price of Nordic products may be lower

another middleman said that the spot price of NBSK in the international market was micro US dollars/metric ton, while the highest in November was US $420/metric ton. Prices in parts of Europe fell to $390/MT in the middle of last week, possibly because some manufacturers want to sell some inventory before the end of the year. For the same reason, the spot price of South bleached cork kraft pulp (SBSK) also fell to $380/metric ton from $in November

last week, an American buyer said that the price of NBSK had not changed, but the supplier increased the price of SBSK and Northern bleached hardwood kraft pulp (nbhk) by $per metric ton. He said that since the fourth quarter, the price of NBSK he received has increased by $20 per metric ton. SBSK and sbhk increased by $30 per metric ton

pulp and paper industry analysts are worried about various signals sent by economic development, especially some phenomena presented by pulp and paper industry. They all think there is little hope in the first quarter, but some of them think the market will rebound in the second quarter

Deutsche Bank alex Brown analyst mark Wilde said, "will pulp prices decline again? A little, but there is little room for decline. The real problem is demand. Without demand, any commodity will not perform well."

don Roberts, a forest products analyst at the world market department of Royal Bank of Canada (CIBC), and others pointed out in the research report that they expected pulp prices to fluctuate in the coming months, because the consumption of major varieties of printing/writing paper did not recover much

in view of the fact that the spot price is close to the manufacturer's variable cost, they expressed their firm belief that the pulp price has hit the bottom

Matt Berler, an analyst at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (msdw), pointed out in his research report on December 14 that the pulp market will continue to be weak in the coming months. With the accumulation of seasonal and cyclical forces, the real rebound will occur in September. He predicted that with the reduction of inventory and the increase of shipments in the second quarter, pulp prices are expected to strengthen

Berler also said that uncoated chemical pulp paper is the earliest variety that may have a "rebound in price and quantity"

he believes that several factors may lead to the initial recovery of commodity prices and profits in the second and third quarters: the rebound in U.S. and global GDP, the increase in final demand, the re establishment of inventories by paper manufacturers, and self-discipline in supply

msdw and other analysts believe that the overall price in 2002 will be lower than that in 2001. Msdw estimated that the price of NBSK in the first quarter of 2002 was slightly $490/mt, but the export proportion of extruder was still low in the following three quarters, namely $510/mt, $530/MT and $550/mt, with an annual average price of $520/mt, lower than the predicted average price of $551/mt this year. CIBC predicts that the average price in 2001 and 2002 will be $540/MT and $535/mt respectively

chip Dillon, an analyst at Salomon Smith Barney, expects NBSK prices in Europe to be $540/mt, $510/mt, $595/MT and $695/mt respectively

Goldman Sachs analyst ark Weintraub predicts that the prices of NBSK in 2001 and 2002 are $549/MT and $543/mt respectively, and the prices of Southern bleached hardwood kraft pulp (sbhk) are $485/MT and $473/mt respectively

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